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Post by mooncreek on Jan 13, 2012 21:38:14 GMT
As I was doing my bracket, I realized that the only American I see doing well is John Isner (potentially really well if Rafa's condition is what I suspect). Andy Roddick has a really draining first week - Haase then Hewitt then Raonic only to get Djokovic. Ryan Harrison is certainly going to be throwing something while all eyes will be watching the Murray/Lendl set-up. Actually, if Sam Querrey is ready to go, he's got a good spot: facing a French wild card then the winner of Tomic/Verdasco.
Of the top ten, I see Fish as most likely to lose first round. Gilles Muller is nothing but trouble: ask Nadal. If he makes it out of the match there's a lot of clay courters and all will be good.
Other seeds with issues: Melzer got Karlovic, Stepanek got the only player who comes to net as often as he does (Mahut), Troicki/Ferrero (assuming Ferrero is even somewhat healthy), Monaco vs Kohlschreiber
The draw is set up nicely for Azarenka to win - which is a nice contrast to her US Open draw. Kvitova's loss to Li Na has me wonder about her nerves but I think she'll be good for awhile. As long as Caroline is winning (she should make the quarters with not much issue), there's less for Petra to worry about regarding #1.
Seeds with issues: Safarova vs McHale, Peng vs Rezai (okay, so that one is mostly Aravane having issues), Kirilenko vs Gajdosova (main court + Kirilenko's past AO success + Jarmila's prior AO issues = meltdown possibility)
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Post by falafaclese on Jan 14, 2012 14:02:00 GMT
I never thought I could look at a major draw and think that the half of the draw with Fed and Rafa was the easier half, and yet here I am. I feel like Murray and (of course) Djoker have had more to show me this year, and I also think that maybe the two of them would rather have had either of the other two in their half. It doesn't look like Djokovic's confidence has decreased, so I'm waiting to see what Murray has been able to add. I expect that, in addition to Djoker's continued form, the Andy and Ivan show will be the big story on the men's side. I can't help feeling that Ivan was an obvious, and good choice for Andy. I also think that Andy gave Djoker a decent amount of trouble on clay in Rome last year, but lost to him badly here at the beginning of the year, so I think that will prove to be a good semi if it happens. Of course Murray's got an interesting first round draw against Harrison that could go either either way, but after that, I think he's in good shape until the second week. I'm really looking forward to Raonic/Djoker.
Speaking of meltdowns, I don't know what to think about Verdasco/Tomic. Verdasco has been nothing if not frustrated for like a year. Every time I've seen him he has looked like he's fuming and ready to explode. Tomic, on the other hand, is the tennis embodiment of frustration with all those off-pace shots and twisty spins, and that annoyingly languid movement. I feel like this could be the perfect storm. Verdasco won the last time they played, but that was three years ago. He may spontaneously combust, and leave nothing but a smoking crater and that model girlfriend of his.
I really like the women's draw for the most part. I'm kind of bummed that Zheng Jie and Madison Keys get each other in the first round, since I like both of them, but I guess that's a minor complaint. Maybe I'll get lucky and they'll get put on a tv court.
I feel like Kuznetsova (yes, I know, I need to shut up about Kuznetsova) looks strong right now. In fact I seems like all the people I really like look strong right now. I feel like we could be looking at an Azarenka/Li/Williams/Kvitova semifinal, but of course there are a lot of women really seeming like they're playing well right now, and even more who haven't really played enough to assess. Sharapova could have significant problems with Dulko who, on a good day, can really give top players fits, especially when they're short on matches like Maria is right now. How is it that Dulko of all people seems to know how to zero in on the weak ones in the crowd and take them down? Also, how is it that Jankovic always seems to get the easiest early draw at these majors? Without fail she always finds herself in the middle of a gang of qualifiers and unknowns.
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Post by mooncreek on Jan 14, 2012 17:37:40 GMT
Jankovic probably thought she got an easy draw with the qualifiers - but she got Laura Robson first, who is absolutely loved in Australia and gave her nothing but grief at Wimbledon.
Totally agree regarding Federer and Nadal getting lucky they are on the same side for a change. They also lucked out that Tsonga (more for Federer) and Ferrer (more for Nadal) are on the other side.
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Post by harry24 on Jan 14, 2012 18:27:51 GMT
But Rafa has those two perennial dangerous floaters, Isner and Karlovic, in his quarter.
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Post by falafaclese on Jan 14, 2012 19:18:41 GMT
About 28 more hours to enter the bracket pool and make your picks. Don't forget!
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Post by mooncreek on Jan 15, 2012 20:31:22 GMT
I'm rather amazed that there's been so little in the way of withdrawing but we finally get one: Florian Mayer out.
Also, given that I have to get up quite early tomorrow to catch a bus to Atlantic City, I'm very happy that the Verdasco/Tomic match is the second match early session. Even if it goes long, easy enough to record the rest to DVD and watch it on the laptop during the ride.
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Post by GrandSlamGuru on Jan 16, 2012 0:16:02 GMT
Here we go! Happy Aussie Open, everyone.
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Post by falafaclese on Jan 16, 2012 0:59:18 GMT
Welcome back, guru!
I really enjoy Bethanie's game, but I'm so invested in the way that Agi has been playing over the past 6 months or so, I'm torn.
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Post by falafaclese on Jan 16, 2012 1:12:58 GMT
For anyone who's using livescorehunter.com to watch this online, I recommend the CastAmp links. they seem to have the best quality by far, as long as you have a decent connection.
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Post by tikigirl on Jan 16, 2012 1:25:47 GMT
Hey, everyone! Glad we're all back!
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lt
Semi Finals
Posts: 3,223
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Post by lt on Jan 16, 2012 2:41:55 GMT
Thanks, falafaclese! Now that I'm taking a short break from NY Giants coverage I wanted to watch a bit of Fer and your suggestion is much appreciated. Don't know why I want to see Fer dressed as an ice cream man but I might as well see it as clear as day. . .
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Post by tikigirl on Jan 16, 2012 3:50:05 GMT
I fucking LOVE Verdasco's colors. Love love love. Fruit stripe gum [/70s].
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Post by falafaclese on Jan 16, 2012 3:52:02 GMT
Mattek-Sands was pretty spectacular in that first set. When she's on, it's so athletic, it appeals to me on a visceral level. I'm glad that Radwanksa pulled it out though, because with the way she has been grinding it out in that past few months it almost felt like she had built up enough tennis karma that she deserved to do well. Verdasco is very businesslike out there . . . I fucking LOVE Verdasco's colors. Love love love. Fruit stripe gum [/70s]. I really like them too, tiki |
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Post by mooncreek on Jan 16, 2012 3:59:16 GMT
I'm craving a burger... and sunglasses. I am also praying that nobody else sponsored by adidas is wearing that shirt. That one like that exists is already one too many.
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Post by harry24 on Jan 16, 2012 3:59:58 GMT
Hi, everyone -- So nice to be down in toasty Oz (at least in my imagination). Add me to those who like Fernando's tropical sorbet colors. They go well with his luscious personal coloring.
Anyone understand what the core issues are in this Fed-Rafa disagreement? The articles I've read mention only the rankings being spread over a year or two years (I side with Rog on that one), and cutting back on the schedule, where I'm not clear what the actual issues are. The quotes from Rafa sound very bitter.
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