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Post by harry24 on May 23, 2011 18:16:39 GMT
Thanks for the preliminary analysis, falafaclese, of what the new balls may mean for various players. My brother and I were discussing what we would like to see the new pelotas change, and we are both hoping, probably in vain, that they might make net play easier.
I was afraid we were going to hear a neverending chorus of "Roger is finished/on the decline" from McEnroe/Robinson, but thankfully they called the match with the respect that is due Rog.
Is there anyone here who's good at crunching rankings numbers? Because I was wondering if there's any chance of Rafa dropping to #3, with all these points he has to defend coming up. (I'm trying to think of any possible scenario for Roger to win more slams.)
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Post by mooncreek on May 23, 2011 19:22:09 GMT
It could definitely happen. Just doing some quick work on this: Let's assume that Rafa only gets to the semis of the French and Wimbledon and Roger gets to the semis of the French and wins Wimbledon. Besides putting Novak at #1, Rafa would have 10510 pts and Roger 10390 pts. I could include the US Open but, yes, quite possible.
I'd also add that a lot of Roger's points are from the Masters in the summer and tournaments after the US Open so I don't think Rafa would be #3 for long.
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Post by harry24 on May 23, 2011 19:54:12 GMT
Thank you, mooncreek! That was brilliant.
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Post by tuckatangent on May 23, 2011 20:15:53 GMT
Roger's not winning Wimbledon. But then I'm in the "he's in decline" camp. It surprised me today to learn that Novak will be #1 if he reaches the RG final. I thought he had to win the whole damn thing. I do love how graciously Rafa's taking Novak's streak, and subsequent loss of his ranking. I don't think he'll fall down to 3, though I suppose anything's possible.
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Post by mooncreek on May 23, 2011 20:42:07 GMT
I agree that Roger is in decline but I also suspect he has one more major in him and Wimbledon is the most likely. Novak may say his dream is to win Wimbledon but I've never been impressed with him playing on the grass over the years. Add the Roger-Rafa semi possibility (the true rematch of The Greatest Match Ever would motivate him) there and it's not out of the question.
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Post by acre on May 23, 2011 21:21:12 GMT
There's a big difference between "in decline" and "done" though. I'm about as big a Fed fan as you're likely to find (among the rational type of fan I mean), and I think it's just plain fact that he's in decline. I mean, he is - his results and the pattern of his wins and losses over the last few years clearly show that. But I think he's far from done, unless anything less than 1-2 Slams a year constitutes done.
He's done being the absolute dominant force in tennis, but he's still perfectly capable of winning a whole lot of matches, he's still the 3rd best player in the world and I do most fervently hope he has another Slam or so in him. Agreed, Wimbledon or possibly the US are his most likely opportunities. I won't be shocked if he never wins another Slam, but if I had to put money down I'd bet on at least one more.
Not too surprised at Berdych - he's great to watch when he's on, but he's nothing if not streaky. I think he's better about that than he used to be, but he's just not a consistent player, and I'd also never pick clay as a very good surface for him.
Rafa is very gracious indeed, he always has been, same as Roger. I dearly hope that when Djok is #1(I'm not really seeing that as an "if" so much anymore) that he remembers to live up to the standard that's been set by those 2 exemplary representatives of the sport. Recent interviews I've read with him do seem to be trending that way, more respectful, more grounded, full of confidence but also grateful for his success and fully acknowledging his opponents.
I know there was at least a rumor that he(Djok) got married this spring, anyone know if that's true? Maybe if it is, he now has a new primary family member who is a good influence on him as opposed to his rude, chest-thumping parents. Or maybe he's just growing up - lots of difference between a young man of 20 and 24.
All I want for the women is interesting, competitive matches with a minimum of screaming. Screaming makes me petulant!
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Post by harry24 on May 23, 2011 22:03:54 GMT
I know you were talking about Rafa and Roger as personal exemplars, acre, but as awesome as Djoker has been this year, think just how longer he would have to play at this level to approach what R&R have done. It kind of boggles the mind.
And that may sound as though I think Rafa is "in decline," which is madness, although I have found it depressing to see him dominated to the extent that Djoker is doing that this year. My, hopefully irrational, fear is that Djoker's extraordinary level could shake that seemingly invisible Rafa spirit in a significant way. If nothing else, that could make their future rivalry less exciting.
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Post by falafaclese on May 24, 2011 1:13:01 GMT
Thanks for the preliminary analysis, falafaclese, of what the new balls may mean for various players. My brother and I were discussing what we would like to see the new pelotas change, and we are both hoping, probably in vain, that they might make net play easier. Of course I'm obviously not any kind of expert, I'm just theorizing, but it seems lik e a faster ball would be harder for a flat hitter to control, and I heard someone say that with Rafa's spin it was just jumping off his racquet. I've also read that they're harder than the other balls. We'll see. As for Djoker, as well as he's playing, at some point all of these extra matches he's playing will have an effect. I still agree that he'll probably take over the number one spot, but there are so many variables to control over this long a period of time (fitness, focus, intensity, and even luck) that something has to give. I'm not rooting against him so much as I am rooting for Rafa. I've found that I was starting to enjoy his dominance almost as much as I did Fed's, and I'm not ready for it to go away. Still, with the way that Djoker is playing, even if he doesn't win RG, he's got a hell of a year ahead of him. And that's even if he doesn't win, which is a big if. |
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lt
Semi Finals
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Post by lt on May 24, 2011 13:16:54 GMT
On French Open Tonight last night they were talking to Roger and he was talking about his 41-match streak and that it ended against Canas at Indian Wells. I guess I should stop looking for the big guy to end Djokovic's streak. Roger talked about how it is way more stressful for Nole coming into a slam with an active streak and that even though IW is a big tournament, it isn't a slam. Two things I took away from the interview: 1) Roger now believes in Djokovic's skills. In previous years when Nole would do something great Roger was pretty darn dismissive (rude, I know). Now, he (at least publicly) is very complimentary and respectful. 2) Roger has discovered a new way to shorten interviews. He was talking about how "even at #3" he has all these lengthy press commitments and then proceeded to answer the questions before Macatee had finished asking them. It was really funny. Roger was polite and accommodating but it was obvious where the preamble was going to lead with the question so he would just interrupt and answer early.
Andy cut his hair! I didn't get to see any of his match but YEAH! Definition of a guy (as long as his mouth is closed) who is handsome with short hair and not with long.
Oh, and watching TTC coverage of Roger/Feli I was pleasantly surprised to hear both Ted and John being complimentary of Feli's game. John was rightly exasperated at how Feli isn't as aggressive as he should be and that Feli lets his dark mood end matches before they should but he obviously likes the talent. And like harry said, while they talked about Djokovic they only said that with age it was natural that Roger doesn't have the same first quick step that he used to and that he was still great. The one thing they said that REALLY bothered me was talking about how the twins are part of the reason Roger isn't dominating. Roger has made it clear that he wants more slams and to be #1 again and I didn't like that the commentators were putting it out there that the kids were in his way. Neither Roger nor the girls will ever see that coverage of the match so it doesn't matter in the long run but I'd hate "the children made him lose his edge" to become a thing.
eta: oh, and Macatee (who I really like up there in the trees. He is calm and asks some interesting questions. Not a booth guy but good as the "boss") interviewed Michel Lacoste and that made me want to go out and buy some Lacoste polos. Also, I never knew that Rene got the nickname of "the crocodile" because he bet someone a crocodile bag on a match. Such a random little moment that changed history.
Isner is holding his own. Good for him. Hopefully a good, but not scary, first round will help both Rafa and Roger. Okay, forget what I said about not scary. Wow.
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Post by tikigirl on May 24, 2011 14:40:15 GMT
Holy shit, what's going on with Isner/Nadal? I'm at my sister's house, there's no TTC, and I'm on a netbook that won't handle streaming very well...
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Post by skyz on May 24, 2011 14:42:31 GMT
Interesting. I say this goes to a 5th with Nadal winning. An upset seems highly unlikely to me but who knows. But I do like the underdog. Go, John! A little bit of go, Rafa.
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Post by oopssorry on May 24, 2011 14:45:53 GMT
Yes, indeed, lt.
And while I agree that Roger is no longer dismissive of Nole, I think that Nole's own actions are the source of that. I think Roger was holding back his own politeness until Nole got his own (and his 'rents') act together....
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Post by skyz on May 24, 2011 14:52:41 GMT
How can they even begin to suggest his children are making Roger lose his edge? I mean he didn't give birth to them, like Kimmy, so it's not miraculous. He's getting older, that's it and that's all. Give me a fucking break.
Rafa looks at his box a lot, yes? I never noticed.
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lt
Semi Finals
Posts: 3,223
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Post by lt on May 24, 2011 15:04:21 GMT
Oh dear. Fer is becoming Roddick pt. 2. We've seen the past few tournaments where he's refused to shake the chair ump's hand. During this last changeover he spent the whole time talking to the chair ump (from the back of his head it looked like Ramos but I'm not positive). That's not good. And he looks crankier than he should after winning the first set 6-2.
Loving this picture-in-picture. I've got Fer/Juan up big and Rafa/John little. I can keep an eye on livescores and switch as needed.
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Post by harry24 on May 24, 2011 15:09:01 GMT
Feeling nervous for Rafa but happy for Isner, whom I really like, particularly since his stellar performance in the Letterman Top Ten after the Mahut epic.
I really enjoyed that too, lt. I think McE's best feature as a commentator is when he clearly admires a lesser known player.
I didn't take McE's comment exactly that way. To my ears, McE wasn't saying that the girls are a drag on Roger's commitment, but, rather, that Roger is only naturally finding his heart and his head tugged in other directions at this point in his life.
However, this is one of McE's WORST qualities: he fucking speculates as though it's something he actually has some information/knowledge about, which he clearly Does.Not.
It really bums me out that the French crowd isn't warmer towards Rafa.
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